The Institutional Unwind
— Margin Notes: 2026-06-05
To understand the scale of the current crypto rout, look at the $62 billion. Bitcoin treasury firms shed $62 billion in a deepening market slide. For context, that is nearly the entire market...
The Capex Ceiling
The Capex Ceiling
— Margin Notes: 2026-06-04
The market is currently operating under a form of selective blindness. While Israel and Lebanon agreed to a conditional ceasefire, the US and Iran continue to exchange strikes....
The Great Rotation
The Great Rotation
— Margin Notes: 2026-06-03
A fragile ceasefire in the Middle East began to crack on Tuesday. What started as diplomatic posturing quickly turned into physical combat as US and Iran exchanged military strikes....
The Squeeze Logic
The Squeeze Logic
— Margin Notes: 2026-06-02
A handful of detained tankers in the Strait of Hormuz started as a logistical inconvenience last week. By Tuesday, the arithmetic of global energy trade had rewritten itself....
The Independence Illusion
The Independence Illusion
— Margin Notes: 2026-06-01
Jerome Powell warns that politicizing Fed will erode its credibility. The market is currently operating under a form of selective blindness. While the outgoing Fed Chair defends the institution's...
The Truce Premium
The Truce Premium
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-29
The pipes of the energy complex cleared today as the market priced out the immediate threat of a blockade. When the US and Iran agreed to a 60-day truce renewal, the risk premium that had been...
The Hormuz Spiral
The Hormuz Spiral
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-28
A few tactical airstrikes near the Strait of Hormuz started as a localized military operation on Thursday. Within hours, they had effectively dismantled the peace narrative the market spent the last week pricing. When the US military launched strikes near Hormuz with no accord in sight, the energy complex reacted with a violent surge...
The Memory Boom
The Memory Boom
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-27
The scale of the current AI infrastructure trade is best understood through a single number: $1 trillion. It is a milestone that once felt reserved for the most established software giants or oil majors, yet Micron topped $1 trillion in market cap this session...
The Fragile Truce
The Fragile Truce
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-26
US military strikes on Iran started as a tactical adjustment on Monday night. By Tuesday, they were whipsawing the energy complex. While the US government claims that talks are proceeding nicely, the physical reality of US military strikes hitting targets in Iran has reintroduced a risk premium...
The Peace Deflation
The Peace Deflation
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-25
A small spark in the Middle East has officially become a structural fire. The attack on a UAE nuclear plant from Iraq serves as a calculated warning shot from Iran, shifting the regional tension from diplomatic posturing to kinetic reality...
The Peace Premium
The Peace Premium
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-24
The plumbing of global energy markets is starting to clear. When an LNG tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz for India for the first time since the conflict began, it provided the first physical proof that the blockade is easing. This is the mechanical precursor to the headline: Trump announced a negotiated deal with Iran...
The Warsh Mandate
The Warsh Mandate
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-23
The institutional psychology of the US bond market is currently grappling with a directive that sounds like freedom but feels like a threat. When Kevin Warsh was sworn in as US Federal Reserve Chair, the US government provided him the explicit instruction to do his own thing. For a portfolio manager, this is a dangerous kind of autonomy...
