Treasuries Charge for the Unknown
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-02
The United States added a carrier and 10,000 troops to the Middle East as commanders prepared for a possible escalation with Iran. The US military expanded its regional options as the conflict...
Powell's Independence Becomes a Bond-Market Variable
Powell's Independence Becomes a Bond-Market Variable
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-01
President Donald Trump said Jerome Powell should be forced to resign from the US Federal Reserve Board, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained at 5.30%....
Robinhood Opens the Door to a More Levered Market
Robinhood Opens the Door to a More Levered Market
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-30
The US dollar is on track for its strongest month since June, while the US 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.23%. The US Fed kept one more 2026 rate hike in the conversation, and that is enough to...
Nvidia's Buyback Finds a Market With Receipts
Nvidia's Buyback Finds a Market With Receipts
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-29
Crude oil reached $94.03 while Brent approached $99.32, and the US 10-year Treasury yield stayed at 5.24%. Oil pushed investors back toward another US Fed hike, because an energy shock is not merely...
The Dollar Makes Every Promise Prove Itself
The Dollar Makes Every Promise Prove Itself
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-28
Brent crude reached $98.32 as the US government rejected an Iranian proposal tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, putting the inflation channel back in charge of the tape....
The 5.16% Yield Wall and the Tokenized Bypass
The 5.16% Yield Wall and the Tokenized Bypass
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-25
US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.16%, cementing a new baseline that the market is struggling to digest. This isn't a temporary spike to be traded away; it is a structural shift in the cost of...
The US 10-Year Yield Reclaims 5% and Breaks the Risk-On Spell
The US 10-Year Yield Reclaims 5% and Breaks the Risk-On Spell
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-24
A surge in US 10-year Treasury yields to 5.11% has effectively ended the risk-on honeymoon. The market is no longer trading on the hope of a diplomatic thaw, but on the fear that yields surged above...
Brent's Slide Prices a Diplomatic Reset
Brent's Slide Prices a Diplomatic Reset
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-23
Brent crude dropped to $89.26 as the US government signaled a breakthrough in talks with Iran, shifting the narrative from "annihilation threats" to productive dialogue....
Nasdaq's Record High Outruns the Regulatory Noise
Nasdaq's Record High Outruns the Regulatory Noise
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-22
Meta's new Muse AI agent pushed Intel up 12.14% and Meta up 11.43%, signaling that the AI trade is finally moving beyond the narrow confines of a few winners....
Bessent's Thaw Resets the Risk Baseline
Bessent's Thaw Resets the Risk Baseline
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-21
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described recent engagements with China as very successful, providing the risk-on catalyst the market has been hunting for since the US Fed's last hike....
The SEC's Tokenization Pivot Redefines the Risk Baseline
The SEC's Tokenization Pivot Redefines the Risk Baseline
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-18
The US SEC issued guidance to tokenize stocks and rolled out an innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues, effectively building a bridge between traditional finance and the blockchain....
Kevin Warsh’s 25-Basis-Point Line in the Sand
Kevin Warsh’s 25-Basis-Point Line in the Sand
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-17
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first hike since July 2023 and a direct defiance of President Trump's public demands for a cut....
