The Peace Premium
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-24
The plumbing of global energy markets is starting to clear. When an LNG tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz for India for the first time since the conflict began, it provided the first physical proof that the blockade is easing. This is the mechanical precursor to the headline: Trump announced a negotiated deal with Iran...
The Warsh Mandate
The Warsh Mandate
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-23
The institutional psychology of the US bond market is currently grappling with a directive that sounds like freedom but feels like a threat. When Kevin Warsh was sworn in as US Federal Reserve Chair, the US government provided him the explicit instruction to do his own thing. For a portfolio manager, this is a dangerous kind of autonomy...
The Warning Shot
The Warning Shot
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-22
A small spark in the Middle East has officially become a structural fire. The attack on a UAE nuclear plant from Iraq serves as a calculated warning shot from Iran, shifting the regional tension from diplomatic posturing to kinetic reality...
