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SoftBank Finds the AI Boom's Financing Limit
SoftBank Finds the AI Boom's Financing Limit
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-20
SoftBank’s credit risk reached a four-year high as data-center company Elice plunged 33% in its debut, putting the financing side of the AI boom on the front page....
Nasdaq Prices a More Selective Recovery
Nasdaq Prices a More Selective Recovery
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-19
Crude oil fell 1.99% to $99.39 and Brent declined 2.40% to $107.30 as supply remained intact despite the fighting. Oil prices gave risk assets a little room to breathe, not because the geopolitical...
Warsh Gives Markets Permission to Be Selective
Warsh Gives Markets Permission to Be Selective
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-16
Kevin Warsh’s comments helped push the US 10-year Treasury yield to 5.07% while the S&P 500 gained 0.33% and the Nasdaq rose 0.08%. The important change was not a promise of easier money....
TSMC’s Beat Meets the Cost of Money
TSMC’s Beat Meets the Cost of Money
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-15
September US consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, a result that pushed the prospect of an October rate increase back into the market’s conversation....
ASML Prices the Bottleneck Behind the Boom
ASML Prices the Bottleneck Behind the Boom
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-14
A fire at an Aramco complex in Dhahran followed another Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia, while crude oil rose 0.25% to $94.38. The strike reached Saudi energy infrastructure without causing casualties,...
South Korea’s Chip Rout Finds the Market’s New Fault Lines
South Korea’s Chip Rout Finds the Market’s New Fault Lines
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-13
South Korea’s Kospi fell 10.91% to 739.22 as concerns over Chinese semiconductor competition turned a technology correction into a regional rout. Korean chip stocks lost their footing as investors...
The 5.24% Treasury Yield Keeps Relief on Probation
The 5.24% Treasury Yield Keeps Relief on Probation
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-12
The US 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.24% on Monday, even as the S&P 500 rose 0.59% and investors prepared for a week of inflation and earnings data. That is the market’s slightly contradictory...
OpenAI’s $70 Billion Promise Splits the Risk Trade
OpenAI’s $70 Billion Promise Splits the Risk Trade
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-09
Brent crude fell 0.71% to $103.54 after President Donald Trump ruled out attacks on Iran before the US midterms. The US government removed an immediate escalation risk from oil markets, which is...
Brent Makes Liquidity the Day’s Real Trade
Brent Makes Liquidity the Day’s Real Trade
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-08
Brent crude reached $103.35 after attacks around Saudi Arabia and renewed reports of possible strikes involving Iran. Brent crude jumped 3.14% as supply fears returned to the tape, and the move was...
Oil Tests Every Risk Premium
Oil Tests Every Risk Premium
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-07
Iranian forces increased attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz as Brent crude climbed 0.84% to $101.42. Iran’s attacks have made the energy chokepoint a live market variable, even though...
Nasdaq Borrows Against the Bond Market
Nasdaq Borrows Against the Bond Market
— Margin Notes: 2026-10-06
The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.30% while longer-dated bonds extended their decline toward levels last seen in 2002. Long-term Treasury yields reached fresh 24-year highs, and the move...
