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The Yen Rewrites the Liquidity Map
The Yen Rewrites the Liquidity Map
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-04
The Japanese yen advanced more than 2% on Thursday, moving toward levels last seen in May as investors unwound positions funded in the low-yielding currency....
Hormuz Forces Reassurance to Show Its Work
Hormuz Forces Reassurance to Show Its Work
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-03
Brent crude closed at $94.53 on Thursday, down 1.15%, after President Donald Trump said the US campaign against Iran would be brief and that the Strait of Hormuz remained under control....
Nvidia's $14 Billion Bet Meets a Higher Hurdle
Nvidia's $14 Billion Bet Meets a Higher Hurdle
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-02
Brent crude reached $95.57 on Wednesday, while US crude moved above $90, giving the latest Iran strikes a direct route into inflation expectations. US-Iran fighting lifted oil prices as shipping risk...
Treasuries Make Every Asset Explain Its Funding
Treasuries Make Every Asset Explain Its Funding
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-01
The US 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.77% on Tuesday, while the 30-year yield reached 5.269%, giving September an expensive opening paragraph. Global bond yields climbed to their highest levels...
The 4.71% Treasury Yield Raises the Cost of Every Shock
The 4.71% Treasury Yield Raises the Cost of Every Shock
— Margin Notes: 2026-08-31
US strikes on Iranian rocket launchers sent Brent crude to $90.53, a move that puts the Strait of Hormuz back at the center of the market’s inflation calculation....
Warsh Inherits a Market Priced for Growth
Warsh Inherits a Market Priced for Growth
— Margin Notes: 2026-08-28
US stock futures slipped before Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, while the US 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.67%. The market is not waiting for a rate decision today; it is waiting for a...
Nvidia Prices the Era of Expensive Confidence
Nvidia Prices the Era of Expensive Confidence
— Margin Notes: 2026-08-27
Nvidia reported $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue after the market close, beating expectations and pointing to continued demand for AI infrastructure. The result supports the central growth story,...
Hormuz Talks Move Risk Beyond Oil
Hormuz Talks Move Risk Beyond Oil
— Margin Notes: 2026-08-26
Iran and Oman are discussing an interim reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude fell 1.93% to $85.59 as traders marked down the immediate chance of a prolonged supply shock....
Bitcoin’s $80,000 Verdict
Bitcoin’s $80,000 Verdict
— Margin Notes: 2026-08-25
Bitcoin climbed past $80,000, marking a three-month high and effectively pricing in a world where sovereign debt is viewed as a liability rather than a safe haven....
The Debasement Trade's New Guard
The Debasement Trade's New Guard
— Margin Notes: 2026-08-24
Institutional capital is no longer waiting for the US government to fix its bond market; it is simply betting against the attempt. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's $4 billion buyback was...
Bitcoin’s Hard Asset Pivot
Bitcoin’s Hard Asset Pivot
— Margin Notes: 2026-08-21
Bitcoin surged past $75,000, leading a broader rotation into hard assets while the Dow tumbled 703 points. This isn't a simple risk-on rally; it is a defensive pivot....
