Five Ships, 4.68%, and a Selective Rally
— Margin Notes: 2026-08-04
Five ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz, down 99 from the previous count, as attacks pushed the world’s most important energy passage toward operational paralysis....
A $165 Million Transfer Meets 4.69%
A $165 Million Transfer Meets 4.69%
— Margin Notes: 2026-08-03
Crude oil fell 6.57% to $79.11 after President Donald Trump said US-Iran talks would begin Monday, reversing much of the supply-risk premium built into energy markets last week....
Microsoft’s $450 Billion Vote
Microsoft’s $450 Billion Vote
— Margin Notes: 2026-07-31
Microsoft shares rose 15.51% to $451.10, creating roughly $450 billion in additional market value and giving the Nasdaq a 2.78% lift. Microsoft delivered the market’s clearest vote yet for continued...
$4,092 Gold Finds No Shelter
$4,092 Gold Finds No Shelter
— Margin Notes: 2026-07-30
US forces launched fresh strikes against Iran as the conflict widened across the Middle East, sending Brent crude up 2.48% to $92.99 and cutting daily Strait of Hormuz transits by 101 ships....
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The Institutional Unwind
The Institutional Unwind
— Margin Notes: 2026-06-05
To understand the scale of the current crypto rout, look at the $62 billion. Bitcoin treasury firms shed $62 billion in a deepening market slide. For context, that is nearly the entire market...
The Capex Ceiling
The Capex Ceiling
— Margin Notes: 2026-06-04
The market is currently operating under a form of selective blindness. While Israel and Lebanon agreed to a conditional ceasefire, the US and Iran continue to exchange strikes....
The Great Rotation
The Great Rotation
— Margin Notes: 2026-06-03
A fragile ceasefire in the Middle East began to crack on Tuesday. What started as diplomatic posturing quickly turned into physical combat as US and Iran exchanged military strikes....
The Squeeze Logic
The Squeeze Logic
— Margin Notes: 2026-06-02
A handful of detained tankers in the Strait of Hormuz started as a logistical inconvenience last week. By Tuesday, the arithmetic of global energy trade had rewritten itself....
The Independence Illusion
The Independence Illusion
— Margin Notes: 2026-06-01
Jerome Powell warns that politicizing Fed will erode its credibility. The market is currently operating under a form of selective blindness. While the outgoing Fed Chair defends the institution's...
The Truce Premium
The Truce Premium
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-29
The pipes of the energy complex cleared today as the market priced out the immediate threat of a blockade. When the US and Iran agreed to a 60-day truce renewal, the risk premium that had been...
The Hormuz Spiral
The Hormuz Spiral
— Margin Notes: 2026-05-28
A few tactical airstrikes near the Strait of Hormuz started as a localized military operation on Thursday. Within hours, they had effectively dismantled the peace narrative the market spent the last week pricing. When the US military launched strikes near Hormuz with no accord in sight, the energy complex reacted with a violent surge...
