Kevin Warsh’s 25-Basis-Point Line in the Sand
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-17
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first hike since July 2023 and a direct defiance of President Trump's public demands for a cut....
The Fed's Credibility Trap
The Fed's Credibility Trap
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-16
Wall Street has effectively priced in a rate hike for Wednesday's meeting, leaving US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a position where the market is doing his job for him....
Treasuries Turn Inflation Into a Risk-Asset Audit
Treasuries Turn Inflation Into a Risk-Asset Audit
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-15
The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.03%, its highest level since 2007, as investors prepared for the US Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting. Treasury yields crossed the five-percent line, and the...
Kevin Warsh Inherits a Market Without Easy Answers
Kevin Warsh Inherits a Market Without Easy Answers
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-14
Brent crude climbed to $107.22 after a Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown added a fresh interruption to an already strained energy system. The Saudi pipeline shutdown pushed Brent higher, while US...
The Treasury Market Reprices the Risk Trade
The Treasury Market Reprices the Risk Trade
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-11
The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.95% as a global bond selloff brought the 5% threshold within touching distance. The US bond market pushed borrowing costs toward 5%, and the significance is...
ECB Raises the Cost of Waiting
ECB Raises the Cost of Waiting
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-10
The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates again as Brent crude holds above $100, an awkward pairing that turns a regional war into a global policy test....
Hormuz Makes Every Shortcut Expensive
Hormuz Makes Every Shortcut Expensive
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-09
Brent crude rose 1.59% to $99.48 on Wednesday, while US crude added 1.38% to $94.31 as shipping disruptions began showing up less as a distant supply worry and more as a refining problem....
Brent Prices the Cost of Fragile Promises
Brent Prices the Cost of Fragile Promises
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-08
Brent crude rose 2.50% to $98.69 on Tuesday as reports of attacks on Saudi energy sites collided with Iran’s claim that a deal with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz was close....
Brent Turns Every Shock Into a Liquidity Test
Brent Turns Every Shock Into a Liquidity Test
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-07
Brent crude reached $97.30 as Iran and the United States exchanged attacks involving oil tankers, extending a conflict that has now lasted six months. Tanker strikes pushed crude higher as supply...
The Yen Rewrites the Liquidity Map
The Yen Rewrites the Liquidity Map
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-04
The Japanese yen advanced more than 2% on Thursday, moving toward levels last seen in May as investors unwound positions funded in the low-yielding currency....
Hormuz Forces Reassurance to Show Its Work
Hormuz Forces Reassurance to Show Its Work
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-03
Brent crude closed at $94.53 on Thursday, down 1.15%, after President Donald Trump said the US campaign against Iran would be brief and that the Strait of Hormuz remained under control....
Nvidia's $14 Billion Bet Meets a Higher Hurdle
Nvidia's $14 Billion Bet Meets a Higher Hurdle
— Margin Notes: 2026-09-02
Brent crude reached $95.57 on Wednesday, while US crude moved above $90, giving the latest Iran strikes a direct route into inflation expectations. US-Iran fighting lifted oil prices as shipping risk...
